We spent a good amount of energy discussing the Rays’ choice to send Evan Longoria to AAA, in order to control his services for an extra year. The plan seemed straightforward enough, and I was convinced it was the right move.As you know by now, the Rays were thinking even further ahead. In what may be an unprecedented deal, the team signed Longoria to a six year contract (with team options that run all the way through 2016) just six games into his Major League career. He will be guaranteed $17.5 million over the first six years, which includes 2008. This covers his three pre-arb seasons, as well as three of his four arb-eligible years (since he was sent down for only the first two weeks, Longoria would have been a “super two” after the 2010 season). The club then has an option on him for 2014 (his last arb-eligible year), and a subsequent one for 2015 and 2016 (his first two FA-eligible years).
Given how uncertain I was about the Chris Young contract due to his lack of performance to date, I feel strange supporting this one outright. But make no mistake, this is a tremendous deal for Tampa Bay. Sky has the math on it, but it’s really very simple: if Longoria turns into Abraham Nunez, the Rays will be out ~$10-15 million in terms of value. If he turns into an all star-caliber player (a much more reasonable scenario), they would be looking at a surplus that dwarfs that previous figure.Like with Young’s deal, much of that potential surplus comes from the club option years, which the Rays take on with almost zero added risk (there is a $3-4 million buyout if the team declines the 2014 option). Even if Longoria hits all of his escalators, he would be looking at just $7.5 million in his last arb-eligible season, and then $25 million for his first two free agent years. That is exceedingly cheap in 2008 dollars, let alone 2014-2016 dollars.
Also, for all the consternation it caused, two weeks of Willy Aybar (who hit .292/.370/.500) saved the Rays several million dollars in the latter years of this contract. The minimum figure we can point to is $3.5 million, which is the difference between his last arb-eligible salary in 2014 and his first FA-eligible salary in 2015. But really we should be looking at the difference between his 2014 salary ($7.5 million) and what would have been his salary in 2016 had it been his third FA-eligible season instead of his second. That number is likely closer to $10 million.
- As for Frank Thomas, this scenario wasn’t entirely unpredictable. His option for 2009 would have kicked in at 350 plate appearances, and the Jays wanted no part of it. Apparently they figured they could simply bench a first ballot Hall of Famer coming off back-to-back good years without causing any internal commotion. Surprisingly enough, they scrapped that plan after one day, releasing Thomas and eating the rest of his 2008 salary.The question now is, what’s next for the Big Hurt? We could repeat this exercise to try to find his best possible fit, but I don’t think it would give us a perfectly obvious solution. Thomas can still hit, but he is not nearly in Bonds’s class, and I’m not sure there is a contending team that could use him everyday. The Angels are the most obvious answer, but even if they had the good sense to throw Garret Anderson aside, Vladimir Guerrero will still need some days off from right field. Tampa Bay is also an option, although that would likely mean Jonny Gomes having to play right field. It’s certainly possible that Thomas could end up with a second division team, but without the lure of a major milestone, I’m not sure who would be that interested.
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